The events of the last two weeks in Nigeria have been intense. I have gone through intense moments of fear, hope, and distraught. Fear of what the future holds for Nigeria. Hope that people are willing to live and die for this nation we were born into. And distraught about the lack of political will and disconnection the political elite have with the livelihoods of regular Nigerians.
Without the events of the last few weeks, I would never have imagined that Nigerians could successful prove a point to the political elite in the manner they have. And even better, I may never have seen the ability of Nigerians to organise and execute with precision and excellence. The #EndSARS protests show a generation tired of ineptitude and incompetence. A generation that is willing and able to rise up to the challenge. It also showed, unfortunately, the wide gap between the rich and the poor. It showed that progress cannot be made without scaling back the trauma and habits of political violence developed in the years leading up to today.
Now, the task upon us is to figure out a way forward. It is obvious that we need to take political action to have long lasting change. I think there are three possible routes we can take: the Macron way, the Ocasio way and the "Third way."
In the Macron way, we would have a single inspirational leader create a new party, run for the office of President and attempt to reform the whole nation from that position. The President of Nigeria has A LOT of power. But there are some of obvious limits that make this unviable to me. First is the election cycle. The sequence of elections make it difficult to have a national assembly that rhymes in the same direction as that of the president. Both elections happen on the same day. So there is a risk that a President may be elected from one party, but his party fails to get a majority in the National Assembly. Especially if this party is created by non-traditional politicians.
The other way would be the Ocasio one. Two American NGOs seeking to reform national politics figured out ways to make their members candidates of traditional parties. I don’t think this can work in Nigeria. The APC and PDP party structures are so tightly controlled and shaped in the interests of incumbents, that it would be difficult for new comers to try to hijack the party structure. More so, voters are so used to party name changes that if you hijack the party structure, the incumbents can simply leave and take their supporters to another “platform”. I also saw in 2019 how many young people were frustrated in traditional parties. Those who scaled were typically supported by godfathers and/ came from politically influential families.
I am learning the importance of changing ideas when presented with new facts. It would actually be viable to hijack existing party structures. They have name recognition, committed party members who follow the voices at the top, and strong grassroots structures. These attributes make the work slightly easier if the party is hijacked from the top.
I propose the third way. Instead of trying to hijack an existing party, or attempting to win top-down, we need a more grassroots, country-wide efforts within a new political party or structure based on shared beliefs. This can be a party of coalitions or a small group of like minded youths. Everyone needs to come together with ideas of their vision for Nigeria and discuss those visions. Drilling it down to a clear simple, ideology for what the future Nigeria should be like. This should definitely be done digitally and in secret. And should involve young Nigerians only at this stage. Once completed, I think there should be a wide reach out to outsiders within traditional politics. That is, people who have either attempted to run for public office or attempted political reform. They don’t have to be saints, but they should align with the values set by the coalitions or founding members. This process should be about testing ideas to see how the older generation might accept it. So the group can iterate, and see the ideas which need to be rephrased.
The next stage would focus on using data to select political spaces to compete in. I believe a new Nigerian party needs to focus on Regional and sub-regional power in most scenarios. And most importantly, needs to attempt to gain power in every part of the country—North, South, East and West. Not necessarily in each district or state, but there must be enough activity to avoid being seen as a regional party. Or a Lagos and Abuja party. Now I think data on the results of past elections can show which groups of people are likely to rebel against bad leadership. So data on internal primaries and official elections (though imperfect) can be analysed to see where voter behaviour is not monolithic. This should also be matched against ages of young people etc. Essentially targeting. These are the places that should be marked for direct electoral competition in 2023.
But we cannot leave the other parts of the country blank and limit political action to a game, just as it has been done in the past. So we need propaganda and we need to show "our working." We need to create both civic and voter education material, and get young people to go across the country sharing those messages. Small town halls online and in every corner of Nigeria. Led by locals who understand and buy into the ideology of our party. On one hand educating people on the electoral process and why they need to vote—without making political promises. On another hand sharing our own ideology of what we want Nigeria to look like. Maybe the civic education can be done through a foundation, and ideological propaganda directly by the party.
Then, we need to show some working. Before getting into power or attempting to, we need to prove to people in bits and pieces what a society organised by us will look like. This, in my mind, can be achieved by setting up multiple enterprises across Nigeria and actively employing. The party needs money and the young people need jobs. We can set up micro-factories, local tech services. But the focus should be on profit not scale. Profit that ensures sustainability.
My mind is maxed out right now. But I think this is a good place to start...